Services set to drive employment growth according to Skills Commission projections

Icon of a person next to an up arrow, with text increase for 17 out of 19 industries

Industry Employment Outlook to November 2025.

This story was first published on Monday 22 March 2021. If you wish to use this content, please contact to confirm that the information is still current.

The latest Industry Employment Outlook projects that service industries, led by Health Care and Social Assistance, will underpin the continued recovery in employment from the impacts of COVID-19 over the five years to November 2025.

Want to know where the jobs are to be found and are expected to be over the next five years? It is service industries, led by Health Care and Social Assistance.

A new report from the National Skills Commission projects four industries alone will generate more than three-fifths (or 64.4 per cent) of total employment growth in Australia to November 2025.

The Commission’s latest Industry Employment Outlook projects that the industries to watch are Health Care and Social Assistance (increasing by 249,500 jobs), followed by Accommodation and Food Services (139,900 jobs), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (131,100 jobs) and Education and Training (118,600 jobs).

National Skills Commissioner, Adam Boyton, today said employment is projected to increase in 17 of the 19 broad industries over the five-year period.

“The Health Care and Social Assistance industry is projected to make the largest contribution to employment growth to November 2025, continuing the long-term trend as the primary provider of new jobs in the Australian labour market,” Mr Boyton said.

Health Care and Social Assistance have been relatively resilient to the impacts of COVID-19 and have the largest proportion of workers in resilient occupations.

Accommodation and Food Services industry employment is projected to recover from the impacts of the pandemic and surpass pre-COVID-19 levels (projected to increase by 16.8 per cent).

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services is also projected to increase (up by 11.0 per cent), reflecting ongoing strength in demand for the services of qualified and highly skilled workers throughout the economy.
Education and Training is also projected to increase (up by 10.8 per cent), supported by a larger school aged population and growing demand for adult and community education.

Declines in employment are projected for Manufacturing (down by 5,900 jobs) and Information Media and Telecommunications (down by 7,500 jobs).

The declines in Manufacturing (projected to decline by 0.7 per cent) highlight the existing long-term trend across some Manufacturing sectors, however other sectors are projected to increase. These include the Primary Metal and Metal Product Manufacturing sector (up by 8.5 per cent), which is supported by significant domestic infrastructure investment and the redevelopment of modern manufacturing in Australia.

Each year, the National Skills Commission produces employment projections by industry, occupation, and region for the following five years. The 2020 projections were delayed given the impact of COVID-19 on the labour market.

“The projections contribute to the National Skills Commission’s suite of data, research and analysis which helps us to understand the shape of Australia’s future workforce,” Mr Boyton said.

To view the full Industry Employment Outlook, visit the Labour Market Information Portal.

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Correct at time of publication.